Wednesday 21 September 2011

Does Michigan actually have a decent defense? Um, maybe?

Rick Osentoski, US Presswire

We all know Michigan has struggled on the defensive side of the ball the last few seasons.  Struggled is probably the wrong word.  Flailed maybe?  Had major problems?  A complete disaster?  Thrashed around like a wounded seal waiting to be devoured by a killer whale?

That's the Michigan defense in his mouth there.  The killer whale may be GERG or something, I don't know.  This metaphor is confusing.

But this year Michigan fans have some hope.  Sure the Wolverines have given up some yardage, but overall it just feels better doesn't it?

The first quarter has obviously been a problem on both sides of the ball.  Michigan has been outscored 21-0 in the first quarter through the first three games this season.  Over the next three quarters they've outscored teams 100-23.  While they struggle at first it seems like Greg Mattison is making the right adjustments at the right times.

But I wanted to go back and see if this was perception or reality.  I wanted to see if the pass defense has actually been decent and if the run defense has actually been as bad as it looked.  So I went back and charted the first three games for yards per carry, completion percentage, yards per play, etc. by quarter.  Standard caveats about extremely small sample size apply.  Charts are fun:

Michigan defense vs. Western: first quarter


 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  WMU Pass
         8
           8
        100
        56
        7




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       WMU Rush
               7
                 18
               2.6




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                15
               74
              4.93



Second Quarter


 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  WMU Pass
         9
           16
        56.3
        76
      4.75




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       WMU Rush
               6
                 45
               7.5




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                22
               121
              5.5



Third Quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  WMU Pass
         5
           7
        71.4
        48
      6.86




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       WMU Rush
               12
                 33
               2.75




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                19
               81
              4.26




Michigan defense vs. Notre Dame: first quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  ND Pass
         8
           8
        100
        95
      11.88




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       ND Rush
               9
                 56
               6.2




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                17
               151
              8.88



Second Quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  ND Pass
         4
           14
        28.6
        69
      4.93




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       ND Rush
               9
                 50
               5.6




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                23
               119
              5.17



Third Quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  ND Pass
         5
           6
        83.3
        52
      8.67




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       ND Rush
               9
                 89
               9.9




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                15
               141
              9.4



Fourth Quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  ND Pass
         9
           14
        64.3
        98
      7.0




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       ND Rush
               6
                 10
               1.7




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                20
               108
              5.4




Michigan defense vs. Eastern: first quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  EMU Pass
         1
           2
        50.0
        18
      9.0




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       EMU Rush
               20
                 118
               5.9




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                22
               136
              6.18



Second Quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  EMU Pass
         2
           3
        66.7
        11
      3.7




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       EMU Rush
               10
                 32
               3.2




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                13
               43
              3.31



Third Quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  EMU Pass
         0
           0
        0.0
        0
      0




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       EMU Rush
               5
                 11
               2.2




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                5
               11
              2.2



Fourth Quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
  EMU Pass
         0
           1
        0.0
        0
      0.0




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
       EMU Rush
               11
                 37
               3.4




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                12
               37
              3.08




Michigan defense: 3 game totals: first quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
   Pass
         17
           18
        94.4
        169
      9.39




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
        Rush
               36
                 192
               5.3




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                54
               361
              6.69



Second Quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
   Pass
         15
           33
        45.5
        156
      4.73




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
        Rush
               25
                 127
               5.08




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                58
               283
              4.88



Third Quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
   Pass
         10
           13
        76.9
        100
      7.69




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
        Rush
               26
                 133
               5.12




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                39
               233
              5.97



Fourth Quarter
 Completions
    Attempts
    Comp. %
      Yards
 Yards Per Attempt
   Pass
         9
           15
        60.0
        98
      6.53




           Rushes
              Yards
      Yards Per Carry
        Rush
               17
                 47
               2.77




         Total Plays
         Total Yards
      Yards Per Play
             Totals
                32
               145
              4.53



Conclusions

If the numbers seem a little off, I was pulling them from the "every snap" videos that MGovideo puts out, so I may have missed a couple plays.  However I think these numbers are at least fairly close.  Also for clarification, pass attempts include all attempts including INT's and PI penalties. 

It seems like the first and third quarters are a struggle, while the second and fourth are pretty good.  This leads me to the completely irrational and hopefully conclusion that Mattison is excellent at identifying problems and making changes, somthing we haven't seen recently.

The overall rushing numbers against EMU are a bit of a red herring.  In the first quarter they rushed for 118 yards and a 5.9 YPC average.  Over the next three quarters they rushed 26 times for 80 yards, and averaged 3.1 yards per carry.

I'm not sure we'll see another offense as explosive as ND's this year.  The numbers against the rush in that game (outside of the fourth quarter) are a little troubling.

So, maybe Michigan can be kind of alright on defense this year?  This is something I'm going to continue to track for the rest of the season.  Also later today I'll have up the offensive and defensive numbers from EMU, so check back later.

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