So the day has come. Michigan comes into the game against Michigan St. as an unbeaten team for the third year in a row. In 2009 Michigan was largely ineffective on offense before a somewhat lucky fourth quarter comeback. They would send the game into overtime only to lose 26-20. In 2010 the Wolverines played well on offense, but turnovers and a terrible defense led to a blowout loss, 34-17. Michigan hasn't beaten MSU since 2007. For the last two seasons Michigan has entered this game undefeated and each time they've left with a loss that was the start of a downward spiral.
The defenses: Both teams come into the game good to great defensive rankings. Michigan's scoring defense is ranked 8th overall in the nation (12.5 PPG allowed) and the total defense is ranked 30th (336.5 YPG allowed). MSU comes in ranked 3rd in scoring (10.5 PPG allowed) and 1st in total defense (173.4 YPG allowed). Michigan is also ranked 7th in total takeaways.
However, both defenses are likely overrated. Michigan's early season glut of takeaways and both team relatively low quality early schedules have probably contributed to some inflated rankings. For comparison, the offensive rankings of each teams opponents:
Michigan
Western Michigan - scoring (43), total (43)
Notre Dame - scoring (44), total (20)
Eastern Michigan - scoring (107), total (104)
San Diego State - scoring (71), total (63)
Minnesota - scoring (109), total (110)
Northwestern - scoring (64), total (70)
Average rank - scoring (73), total (68)
MSU
Youngstown State - FCS school. Assume they aren't as bad as Minnesota, so give them a 100 ranking.
Florida Atlantic - scoring (115), total (118)
Notre Dame - scoring (44), total (20)
Central Michigan - scoring (95), total (88)
Ohio State - scoring (86), total (105)
Average rank - scoring (88), total (86)
So neither team has exactly played a murderers row of offenses. It is interesting that MSU has only played one offense ranked better than 86th in either category so far, Notre Dame, which also happens to be the team they gave up 31 points to (although to be fair they held ND under 300 yards).
I don't think either defense is as good as their rankings, but maybe MSU's is slightly less overrated?
The offenses: Michigan's offense is not overrated and MSU's isn't that good. The only thing that can stop the Wolverines offense is turnovers. Unfortunately, Denard Robinson has shown a penchant for throwing interceptions and that will be a big problem if he does it in this game. But hey, so far his games have gone 0 INT's, 3 INT's, 1 INT, 2 INT's, 0 INT's, 3 INT's, so maybe he's due for one or none huh? No? Ok. Anyway, MSU's offense hasn't been the unit it was last year, which is understandable since they lost most of their offensive line plus a couple other guys. The defensive ranks of both teams opponents:
Michigan
Western Michigan - scoring (39), total (47)
Notre Dame - scoring (32), total (51)
Eastern Michigan - scoring (62), total (56)
San Diego State - scoring (52), total (81)
Minnesota - scoring (110), total (91)
Northwestern - scoring (73), total (106)
Average rank - scoring (61), total (72)
MSU
Youngstown State - same as above
Florida Atlantic - scoring (114), total (63)
Notre Dame - scoring (32), total (51)
Central Michigan - scoring (101), total (77)
Ohio State - scoring (17), total (22)
Average rank - scoring (73), total (63)
Again not really anything special. The two best defense MSU has face have held them to 13 (ND) and 10 (OSU) respectively. Michigan seems to have an obvious advantage on offense.
Predictions
Everybody else seems to do more than just the score, so here goes:
- Michigan turns the ball over twice, once on a Denard throw off his back foot, and once on a fumble
- However, Kirk Cousins throws two INT's on ill advised throws into coverage and MSU also fumbles once
- Blake Countess gets his first career INT
- Michigan sacks Kirk Cousins 3 times
- MSU gets the edge a few times, rushing for over 100 yards
- both teams give up 2 plays over 30 yards
- Michigans defense proves to be slightly overrated but the offense does not. Michigan States defense also proves to be slightly overrated but there offense does not.
Final score: Michigan 31 - Michigan State 21
Yes, I'm predicting a 10 point Michigan victory. Is this with my heart and not my head? Absolutely.
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